Image Credit- ICC
Thus, this is what it boils down to. There is a strong
possibility that Bengaluru’s climate will ultimately determine which team
secures both the final Champions Trophy 2025 qualification spot and the last
semi-final spot in this World Cup after a month of nonstop cricket—40 matches,
to be exact. But let’s first quickly review how we got here before getting too
ahead of ourselves.
You may be forgiven for scratching your head a little
at your current situation if you’re from New Zealand. You should have easily
secured a top-four berth after winning four of your first four games and then
scoring 383 and 401 in the next two? Of course!
Not if that 383 was part of an excruciatingly close
loss chase against Australia, and if the 401 occurred before some iconic
Pakistani antics from Fakhar Zaman, who wasn’t even in the starting lineup when
this tournament started.
However, New Zealanders have a lot of control over
their destiny. With a victory vs Sri Lanka, they would advance to ten points
and virtually guarantee a spot in the fourth semifinal. The one catch is that
Pakistan, who will play two days later, will know exactly what they have to do
to England in order to surpass New Zealand’s net run rate (NRR). Afghanistan
could also reach 10 points, but their NRR is so low that it is very difficult
to catch up to the sides that are above them numerically.
Regarding Sri Lanka, whose lacklustre performance in
the tournament, interspersed with a few moments of glory, reached a sharp low
point on Monday when they lost handily to Bangladesh. This reality was
conveniently overlooked by the controversy surrounding Angelo Mathews’ somewhat
controversial, non-polarizing dismissal.
This takes us to the rain, which would be far more
destructive for New Zealand than its rivals. Currently in fourth place and
comfortably leading in NRR, one point from a game that was called off for New
Zealand would mean that Pakistan or Afghanistan would only need to win to
overtake them.
A washout would benefit Sri Lanka, but if the
Netherlands defeats England on Wednesday, then Australia would need to defeat
Bangladesh in order for Sri Lanka to qualify for the Champions Trophy 2025;
otherwise, both Sri Lanka and England would lose out.
As for the actual head-to-head between New Zealand and
Sri Lanka, it’s been all one-way traffic in recent times. Sri Lanka’s last ODI
victory against New Zealand came back in 2015.