Whitewash puts massive dent in India’s WTC qualification hopes as they have plenty to do the the second half of their cycle.
India’s WTC final prospects take a hit after 2-0 whitewash to South Africa.
India’s chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship final have been severely damaged by their 2-0 series loss to South Africa. India has played nine of the eighteen Test matches in their 2025–2027 cycle, and at 48.15%, they are languishing in fifth position.
Many of the other teams are still in the early stages of their campaign; New Zealand has not yet played a series, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played one, and England has just begun their second. However, given how well Australia (100%) and South Africa (75%) have started, India will need to do much more in the second half of their campaign to have any chance of placing in the top two.
Teams will need to be in the 60–65% area to have a chance of making the cut, based on data from the previous two WTC cycles.
In the 2021-23 cycle, India qualified as the second team for the final with a percentage of 58.8, while Australia’s 67.54% won them second place in the previous edition.
Since India is playing 18 Tests in this cycle, they must end with 130 points (18 x 12 points = 216) in order to reach 60%. Teams receive four points for a draw and twelve points for a victory. India will therefore need to score 78 more points in their final nine Test matches, which include five at home against Australia and two each in Sri Lanka and New Zealand. If they don’t lose any points, they have at least two options for getting there:
– six wins and a couple of draws: 6 x 12 + 2 x 4 = 80 – seven wins: 7 x 12 = 84
Prior to their next home Test series against Australia in early 2027, India has two-match series scheduled in New Zealand (October–November 2026) and Sri Lanka (August 2026). Although the latest visit was in 2017, India has a stellar recent record in Sri Lanka, winning five of their past six Test matches there. However, New Zealand has proven considerably more difficult to defeat, losing 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. India would likely need a lot of points to finish in the top two going into the series against Australia, even if they win all four of those Tests.
With four wins out of four, Australia’s WTC campaign is off to a fantastic start. They have a great opportunity of making another final and earning the majority of the points required for it before the tour of India starts, with six home Test matches against Bangladesh and New Zealand scheduled in this cycle.
With three victories from four Test matches in two away series, South Africa is also in a strong position. In February 2027, they will play their final overseas series of this cycle against Sri Lanka. With six Test matches against Australia and England, their home games won’t be simple, though.
Only 17 of the 71 games in this cycle have been played thus far, so some of the other teams may also become contenders as the cycle goes on. However, regardless of how the other teams play, India’s home losses could severely harm their chances in this cycle, just as they did in the previous one.