Delving into the impact of Pat Cummins’ absence for Australia as missing him for at least the first Test is very significant.
Delving into what does Pat Cummins’ absence mean for Australia?
Despite expectations of a Lazarus-like recovery from his lumbar stress injury, Australia has now acknowledged that Pat Cummins will not be available for the first Test match against England, as it has been for a month.
After he resumes bowling later this week, the countdown clock now resets to the Brisbane Test, which begins on December 4.
George Bailey, the head of selectors, and Australia’s coach Andrew McDonald are certain that their skipper will play a significant role in the series and that he might be prepared for the Gabba. Over the past six weeks, Cummins has made more sombre remarks at numerous media appearances, acknowledging that the exact course of his recovery is unknown.
In Cummins’ absence, some former England players who are now commentators have said the visitors shouldn’t be afraid of Scott Boland and “the worst Australian team since 2010”.
It is noteworthy that Australia has won five and drawn one of the six Test matches they have played without Cummins since he was appointed Test captain in 2021. This included winning the 2021–22 Ashes in Adelaide with an attack that lacked Josh Hazlewood and Cummins.
“The worst Australian team since 2010” has also won eight of their last ten Test matches and only lost once, including in the World Test Championship final this year. They have also won three of their previous home games against the same India team that just drew 2-2 with England.
But in their most recent Test match in Perth, India thoroughly destroyed Australia. An attack without Cummins, a bowler who is presently ranked No. 4 in the world and has 309 Test wickets at 22.10, would give England’s aggressive hitters an early opportunity to establish themselves.
Since the new Kookaburra and greener surfaces have been popular, it has been by far Australia’s top batting surface for the past four years.
In that period, just five foreign batters have reached the 100-mark in Australia, and three of those hundreds—including one each from Virat Kohli and Yashasvi Jaiswal last year—have occurred in Perth. The fact that Kohli departed from Test cricket following the series and returned scores of 7, 11, 3, 36, 5, 17, and 6 at Australia’s other locations makes his century noteworthy.
Although the numbers are far from bad, it is Cummins’ least successful location in Australia. In five Test matches, he has never claimed more than three wickets. At all four of the previous Ashes locations, he has at least one five-wicket haul and averages 26.33 and strikes at 62.2 while he averages under 22 and strikes at under 46.4.
The tremendous bounce that Perth offers can be Cummins’ strange kryptonite. What has made him so great for so long is his ability to get bounce out of calm surfaces. But in Perth, he has struggled to find the ideal length to overpitch without endangering the top of the stumps.
In the short term, Cummins’ departure as captain will probably have a greater impact off the pitch than on it, aside from bowling. Among his 23 career captaincy victories, Steven Smith has guided Australia to five Test victory when he has been out of the team. The bowling attack, which has made 329 appearances overall, is unlikely to require cautious management.
The first Test will be different in that Cummins will still be in the dressing room. In terms of internal dynamics, however, it will also contribute to Australia’s feeling of routine. As he addressed the squad after the loss to India in Perth last year, when the level of external criticism was at its highest, Nathan McSweeney, the captain of South Australia and Australia A, praised Cummins’ composure.
Even though Cummins’ main responsibility is to handle the ball, Australia can also feel his absence in his batting and fielding. Without him, Australia’s bottom order is weaker. He won Australia an Ashes Test at Edgbaston with the bat in 2023 and played two vital hands in the win over India at the MCG last summer.
In Australia, Cummins’ threat is constant when he is on the pitch, regardless of how well opposing teams are performing when the surface flattens out—and no Australian surface flattens more than Perth’s on days two and three. When his team most needs it, he has a special talismanic ability to make something out of nothing. No matter how long he is gone, Australia’s biggest problem will be finding another man to take his place in those situations.