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The two powerplay teams with the highest scoring
rates—who also happen to be the most frugal bowling teams—have advanced to the
2023 World Cup final. It has turned into a World Cup for the front-runners, as
we had predicted at the beginning of the competition. India begin the final as
favourites in part because they had outperformed Australia in the first ten
overs, scoring at 6.87 per over compared to Australia’s 6.55 and surrendering
4.34 per over compared to Australia’s 4.75.
Open with Shami
Mohammed Shami will begin the bowling match. When
facing Australia’s left-hand openers, Shami should get going quickly as
Ahmedabad hasn’t shown much movement with the new ball. So far in this World
Cup, Shami has amassed 52 balls, 32 runs, and 8 wickets against left-hand
batsmen. India’s biggest chance of taking advantage of Travis Head’s
vulnerability outside off stump is with him. In one-day internationals, David
Warner has amassed 117 runs off 130 deliveries from Jasprit Bumrah without
being out. He is also a master of the around-the-wicket angle that causes him
problems. Additionally, Bumrah has a 3.13 over powerplay this World Cup.
Rohit vs Hazlewood
Hazlewood’s flawless lengths will be India’s first
danger. In the league encounter in Chennai, he discovered a small amount of
seam movement, and soon India was up 2 for 3. He can repeatedly strike that
knee-roll length. You should not be shocked if, after one over of Hazlewood,
Rohit Sharma comes down the track to knock him off his length because he won’t
want to be a stationary target. Australia trying to trap Rohit in his crease
and Rohit trying to play with their lengths will make for an exciting fight.
What will the team composition be
Because of Hardik Pandya’s absence, India may be less
inclined to replace Mohammed Siraj with R Ashwin, who played just one World Cup
games against Australia. If they only have two fast bowlers, they cannot take a
chance.
Given Marnus Labuschagne’s struggles against left-arm
spin, Australia may be tempted to select Marcus Stoinis; yet, with their lineup
heavily stacked with offensive batsmen, they risk being three down in fifteen
overs. For this reason, they require two reliable batters to make sure Glenn
Maxwell enters the game after 30 overs.
Chase first?
Both the previous four T20 World Cup finals and the
previous three World Cup finals have been won by chasing teams. “Runs on
the board in a final” may be little more than a cliche, not that it
matters to this game.
Let’s move on to the relevant aspects of this contest.
This World Cup, chasing teams have won three of the four league games in
Ahmedabad. the two IPL finals as well. The surface tends to speed and improve
under lights, even in the absence of dew, and it does so without the worrying
swing and seam that is observed at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium. In November,
Ahmedabad hosted two matches that were more competitive, with Australia
defending successfully against England and Afghanistan pushing South Africa hard,
which might suggest the onset of winter has had some impact. That could
mitigate the toss advantage.
The team that wins the toss may choose to pursue in
either scenario. Actually, containing India in sluggish conditions in the
afternoon and then profiting from a skiddier pitch could be Australia’s best
opportunity. If not, India will have the upper hand, and if Australia chooses
to bat first, a few players would have to come out of their skins.