India’s defeat in Kolkata has dragged them into a brutal qualification battle in the 2025–27 World Test Championship, leaving almost no margin for error. Analysts across the board have converged on one blunt conclusion: India need to win 8 of their remaining 10 Tests to stay alive in the race for the WTC final.
The math is unforgiving. India’s points percentage has slipped into the mid-50s, putting them outside the top bracket required to reach the final. To climb back into contention, they need to push their percentage into the mid-to-high 60s — a target only possible with a dominant stretch of victories. Anything less than eight wins is projected to leave them short, even with a couple of draws sprinkled in.
The remaining schedule makes the challenge clear. India have one home Test left against South Africa, followed by a massive five-match home series against Australia — a stretch that will define their campaign. Away from home, they still must navigate two Tests in Sri Lanka and another two in New Zealand, both historically tricky tours. Across these ten matches, they are expected to win almost every series, and certainly cannot afford repeated batting failures like the collapse at Eden Gardens.
This scenario also reflects the rising competitiveness of Test cricket globally. The WTC field is tighter than before, and recent slip-ups have left India with almost no buffer. Analysts warn that even a couple of additional losses would likely push India out of final contention entirely. Past cycles have shown that teams reaching the final tend to maintain a strong points percentage, well above India’s current position.
In short, India’s task is simple to understand but tough to execute: dominate from here on out. Their home series against Australia will be the make-or-break phase, and the away Tests will demand discipline India haven’t always shown recently. If they can turn things around with conviction, the door to the final is still open. If not, the Kolkata loss may end up being the moment their WTC campaign truly unravelled.
12BET Shortlisted for Sportsbook Operator of the Year at SBC Awards 2025