WTC race heats up as India throws the race wide open for both finals spots after their crushing win in Perth.
WTC Final race is still wide open with almost 17 tests to play. With at least 5 teams in contention, it is set up tantalizingly for a grandstand finish.
India’s decisive victory in Perth puts them back atop the WTC points standings and maintains their hopes of reaching the Lord’s final the following year. India still needs to defeat Australia 4-0 in order to guarantee a spot in the top two without relying on other outcomes. Four victories and a tie will raise India’s score to 65.79, which is just over New Zealand’s maximum score of 64.29 if they blank England 3-0 at home. With 2-0 home victories over Sri Lanka and Pakistan, South Africa may end with a maximum score of 69.44, which would put India in second place on the points standings.
Australia still has a lot of work to do to finish in the top two of this WTC race without relying on other outcomes after the loss in Perth. Australia needs five victories in their remaining six games to finish ahead of New Zealand’s maximum score of 64.29, while both South Africa and New Zealand can end with more than 64%. In this scenario, only South Africa, with a maximum score of 69.44, can finish ahead of them.
Australia can finish ahead of India if they win the current series 3-2, but only if they defeat Sri Lanka 2-0 to win the series. Australia will finish in the top two in this instance with a score of 60.53, just ahead of India’s 58.77, but they will require assistance from at least one of South Africa or New Zealand.
The cricket world is primarily focused on Australia and India, but South Africa is ready to begin another major series in which they will play Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. Only Australia can surpass that percentage, thus if South Africa wins their final four Test matches, they will finish with 69.44%, which will undoubtedly be sufficient for qualification. South Africa’s percentage will be 63.89 after three wins and a draw, and it will drop slightly to 61.11 after three wins and a loss.
Three teams, including two from Australia, India, and Sri Lanka, as well as New Zealand, can surpass South Africa if they finish at 61.11. Therefore, if South Africa wants to reach the Lord’s, they can’t lose too many points.
With four Tests remaining, Sri Lanka is on 55.56%, which puts them in a similar position to South Africa and adds interest to the series. Only two of the games, against Australia, are played at home, in contrast to South Africa. They will finish with 69.23% and guarantee themselves a spot in the final regardless of other outcomes if they win each of those games and earn 48 more points.
They will finish at 61.54 if they win three and lose one, which still gives them a chance to qualify. They will have to rely on other outcomes, though, as South Africa mentioned above, since New Zealand and one of Australia or India can surpass them.
Although it was extremely unlikely at the beginning of the Indian series that New Zealand would still be in the running for a spot in the final at the end of the series, three amazing victories have given them hope. They will finish on 64.29 if they win the final three Test matches. Although it won’t guarantee qualifying, it will undoubtedly keep them in the running. However, their percentage will fall to 57.14 if they lose one of those tests, but other outcomes will still keep them in the race.