WTC scenarios for each team after the India- Bangladesh series as qualification enters the business end for each team.
WTC enters the final stretch as each team will look to qualify for the final at Lords next year. Here is how each team stacks up.
With all 24 points, Sri Lanka has launched a serious push for a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Two of their opponents in the final four Test matches are also contenders. They will finish on 69.23% and guarantee themselves a spot in the final regardless of other outcomes if they win all those games and accrue 48 more points (remember, over-rate deductions are always a possibility).
Sri Lanka will finish at 61.54 if they win three and lose one. They will still have an opportunity to qualify based on other outcomes.
India’s dominant position at the top of the table has been further cemented by their incredible victory in Kanpur. They can reach 85.09% if they win each of the final eight tests. Regardless of other outcomes, their more practical goal will be to ensure they earn enough points to guarantee their spot in the WTC final.
They must achieve at least four victories and two draws to reach 67.54 in order to achieve it. If South Africa wins its next six Test matches, they can get as high as 69.44. With four victories and two draws, Australia can only get up to 64.04 (assuming they win the remaining four Tests and lose one to India).
It’s possible that India won’t place in the top two if they receive less than 56 points. For instance, if they win four and draw one (52 points), then it’s conceivable for Australia and South Africa to surpass them.
Bangladesh suffered severe damage from the two losses in India. They went from 45.83% to 34.38 percent. They will not get any better than 56.25 even if they win all four of their remaining Tests. It seems improbable that even that will secure a spot in the top two.
If New Zealand wins all six Tests, they might potentially still finish with a percentage as high as 64.29. Although their current form indicates they won’t come close to that figure. This is due to the fact that three of those Tests—the most difficult assignment in Test cricket—are in India following a crushing 2-0 loss in Sri Lanka. They will only finish at 50% even if they win four and lose two of the six Tests.
Australia, who are now in second position at 62.5%, can finish on a maximum of 76.32 if they win each of the next seven Test matches. Wins against Sri Lanka and India, the two sides they play their remaining series against, will improve Australia’s cause twice over as they are both serious final candidates. They can yet be surpassed by South Africa and India, but five victories will raise their percentage to 65.79. However, by the time they begin the series against India, things will be more apparent because the visitors will have completed their three home Test matches against New Zealand.